Nigeria, Africa’s fourth-largest economy in 2025, is poised to climb to third place in 2026, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Data from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (October 2025 edition) shows Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) at current prices at approximately $285 billion in 2025. This ranks it behind South Africa, Egypt, and Algeria.
South Africa remains the continent’s largest economy, with an estimated GDP of $426 billion, followed by Egypt at $349 billion. Algeria currently holds third place with about $288 billion, narrowly ahead of Nigeria.
Nigeria’s Economic Outlook
IMF projections indicate that Nigeria will overtake Algeria in 2026 as economic output strengthens. Analysts say the growth will be driven by higher oil production, improved foreign exchange liquidity, and ongoing macroeconomic reforms.
The IMF forecasts Nigeria’s GDP will reach around $334 billion in 2026, surpassing Algeria’s projected $284 billion. South Africa and Egypt are expected to maintain first and second place, with GDPs of $443 billion and $399 billion, respectively.
Policy Measures Supporting Growth
The IMF highlighted several policy moves expected to support medium-term growth, including:
Removal of petrol subsidies
Exchange rate liberalisation
Fiscal adjustments
However, these measures aim to boost investor confidence and stabilise the economy, even as short-term inflation pressures persist.
Recent Revisions and Forecasts
Nigeria’s economic ranking has shifted in recent years due to currency devaluations, GDP rebasing, and broader macroeconomic challenges across Africa.
In January 2026, the IMF raised Nigeria’s growth forecast to 4.4%, up from 4.2%. The World Bank also revised its 2026 estimate to 4.4%, higher than the 3.7% projected in June 2025.
For full IMF data and forecasts, visit: IMF World Economic Outlook
