Nigeria has been ranked as Africa’s fourth-largest economy in 2025 but is projected to climb to third position in 2026, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Data from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (October 2025 edition), obtained via the Fund’s datamapper, puts Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) at current prices at approximately $285 billion in 2025. This places the country behind South Africa, Egypt and Algeria in Africa’s economic ranking.
South Africa retained its position as the continent’s largest economy with an estimated GDP of $426 billion, followed by Egypt at $349 billion. Algeria ranked third with about $288 billion, narrowly ahead of Nigeria.
However, IMF projections indicate that Nigeria is set to overtake Algeria in 2026 as economic output strengthens. The rebound is expected to be driven by improved oil production levels, better foreign exchange liquidity and the effects of ongoing macroeconomic reforms.
According to the IMF’s forecast, Nigeria’s GDP is projected to rise to about $334 billion in 2026, surpassing Algeria’s estimated $284 billion. This would position Nigeria as Africa’s third-largest economy, behind South Africa, projected at $443 billion, and Egypt at $399 billion.
The IMF noted that recent policy measures — including the removal of petrol subsidies, exchange rate liberalisation and fiscal adjustments — are expected to support medium-term economic growth, even as the country continues to contend with short-term inflationary pressures.
Nigeria’s ranking among Africa’s largest economies has fluctuated in recent years due to currency devaluations, GDP rebasing exercises and broader macroeconomic challenges affecting major economies across the continent.
In January, the IMF revised Nigeria’s 2026 economic growth forecast upward to 4.4 per cent, from an earlier projection of 4.2 per cent. Similarly, the World Bank raised its 2026 growth forecast for Nigeria to 4.4 per cent, up from the 3.7 per cent estimate released in June 2025.
